Comorbidities as predictors of all-cause emergency department utilization among veterans with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: While comorbidities have been associated with all-cause hospitalizations among persons with multiple sclerosis (MS), there has been no examination of their role in all-cause emergency department (ED) utilization. As such, this study aimed to determine if the presence of comorbidities increases the odds of ED usage in a national sample of Veterans with MS. METHODS: Data were extracted retrospectively from the Veterans Affairs (VA) MS Center of Excellence Data Repository, an electronic health record-based dataset. Veterans who had at least one outpatient visit in 2013, were alive in 2015, and were initially prescribed a disease modifying therapy were included in the dataset (n = 3,742). Current Procedural Terminology codes were used to determine if participants had at least one ED visit during a 24-month time frame beginning 1/1/2013. Comorbidities were identified using ICD-9 codes present before 2013. Separate logistic regressions were conducted for the overall number of comorbidities and categorized comorbidities, adjusting for age, race, and sex. RESULTS: Nearly 32% (n = 1,191) had at least one ED visit, with those Veterans having an average of 6.67 (SD=3.32) comorbidities. After adjusting for demographics, the number of comorbidities was a significant predictor of ED usage (aOR=1.20; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.23, p<.001). Several comorbidities emerged as independent contributors. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause ED utilization is prevalent in MS, with usage increasing in the presence of other chronic conditions. These findings underscore the need to view long-term MS care through the lens of chronic disease management.

Demographic and Clinical Factors Are Associated With Frequent Short-Notice Cancellations in Veterans With Multiple Sclerosis on Disease Modifying Therapies.

OBJECTIVES: (1) To identify the rate of short-notice canceled appointments in a large national sample of persons with multiple sclerosis (MS) and (2) examine the demographic and clinical factors associated with frequent cancellations. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional cohort using electronic health records. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans with MS (N=3742) who were part of the Veterans Health Administraiton's MS Center of Excellence Data Repository and (1) had at least one outpatient appointment at the VA in 2013, (2) were alive in 2015, and (3) were prescribed a disease modifying therapy (DMT). INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Frequent short-notice cancellations, defined as >20% of scheduled appointments canceled with less than 24-hour notification over a 24-month period. This threshold was based on the definition of ≤80% for suboptimal treatment adherence. Several demographics and clinical variables were examined as potential explanatory factors. RESULTS: Approximately 75% (n=2827) had at least 1 short-notice cancellation, with more than 3% (n=117) categorized as frequent cancelers. The odds of frequent cancellations were greater in women (odds ratio [OR], 1.81; P=.004) and among 18- to 44-year-olds (OR, 2.77; P=.004) and 45- to 64-year-olds (OR, 2.49; P=.003) compared to those over 65. The odds were lower among persons who lived <25 miles away (OR, 0.58; P=.043) compared with persons who lived ≥75 miles away and those who had at least 1 emergency department visit (OR, 0.55; P=.012). CONCLUSIONS: Short-notice cancellations are common in persons with MS, although few have more than 20%. These findings highlight who is at greater risk for frequent cancellation and disruptions in their care. Although additional research is needed, the results provide insights into how clinics may approach handling frequent short-notice cancellations among persons with MS.

Risk Factors for Suicide in a National Sample of Veterans With Multiple Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine risk factors in the year before suicide in a national sample of United States veterans with multiple sclerosis (MS), as well as means of suicide and receipt of mental health services prior to death. DESIGN: Case control study. Individuals in the Veterans Affairs MS National Data Repository were linked to the National Death Index Plus to obtain death records, including specific causes of death. Participants were veterans with MS who died by suicide and randomly selected nonsuicide MS controls (5 per participant) who were alive at the time of the index suicide. Mental health disorders and medical comorbidities were identified in the year before death for suicides and during the identical time period for controls. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration. PARTICIPANTS: Veterans (N=426) who received treatment for MS in the United States Veterans Health Administration between 1999 and 2011. There were 71 deaths by suicide and 355 randomly selected controls. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Suicide. RESULTS: Results from the adjusted multivariable model suggest that the following factors were associated with an increased risk for suicide: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 3.60; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.35-9.42), depression (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.03-3.23), and alcohol use disorder (OR, 3.10; 95% CI, 1.38-6.96). Half (50.7%) had a mental health appointment in the year before suicide. The primary means of suicide was by firearm (62.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Routine assessment of suicide risk in individuals with MS is warranted, particularly for those with recent history of depression or alcohol use disorder.

Risk Factors for Suboptimal Medication Adherence in Persons With Multiple Sclerosis: Development of an Electronic Health Record-Based Explanatory Model for Disease-Modifying Therapy Use.

OBJECTIVE: To determine which factors are associated with suboptimal disease-modifying therapy (DMT) adherence and to develop an explanatory model that could be used to identify individuals at risk and potentially inform interventions. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study using electronic health records. SETTING: Veterans Health Administration (VA). PARTICIPANTS: Veterans with multiple sclerosis (MS) (N=2939; 79.69% men) who received care through the VA and were included in the VA MS Center of Excellence Data Repository. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Suboptimal DMT adherence (<80%), demographics, co-occurring conditions, and health care use. RESULTS: Nearly 31% of participants had suboptimal adherence. Flags for suboptimal adherence included >20% missed appointments (odds ratio [OR], 3.78; 95% CI, 2.45-2.82), traumatic brain injuries (OR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.12-2.14), age younger than 59 years (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.23-1.74), ≥1 emergency department visits (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67), mood disorders (ie, depressive and bipolar disorders) (OR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.66), and service connection (OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.47). Hyperlipidemia (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65-0.92) and being issued a wheelchair (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00) were associated with lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal adherence to DMTs continues to be an issue. Interventions that focus on person-level barriers should be urgently explored to increase adherence and improve self-management abilities.

Who is not coming to clinic? A predictive model of excessive missed appointments in persons with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Missed appointments can have negative effects on several facets of healthcare, including disruption of services, worse patient health outcomes, and increased costs. The influence of demographic and clinical factors on missed appointments has been studied in a number of chronic conditions, but not yet in multiple sclerosis (MS). Engagement in healthcare services is a particular concern with this population, given the complexity of the condition. Furthermore, excessive missed appointments has emerged as a risk factor for suboptimal adherence to disease modifying therapies (DMTs), prompting further exploration into this issue and whether a tool could be developed to triage possible interventions for persons with MS on DMTs who are missing their appointments. As such, this study aimed to investigate the rate and factors associated with missed appointments among a large national sample of persons with MS and develop a predictive model of excessive missed appointments. METHODS: Administrative data from 01/01/2013 to 12/31/2015 were extracted from the VA MS Center of Excellence Data Repository. Variables not related to excessive missed appointments, defined as missing more than 20% of scheduled appointments, in bivariate analyses (p > 0.20) were excluded. Remaining baseline co-occurring conditions, demographic, and healthcare utilization variables were entered into a logistic regression model, using a backward elimination criteria of p < 0.05. Calibration and discrimination of the model were assessed. An initial predictive score was generated based on the value of the variable and its ß-value from the final model. RESULTS: The number of missed appointments ranged from 0 to 84 over a two-year period. Over 59% missed at least one appointment, though only 4.28% had excessive missed appointments. Seven variables were retained in the model: adherence to DMTs, age, distance, histories of post-traumatic stress disorder, congestive heart failure, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and emergency visits. Predictive scores ranged from -6.42 to 0.96 (M = -2.61, SD = 1.15). The final model had good discrimination, calibration, and fit. CONCLUSIONS: By using this model and accompanying score, clinicians could have a good chance of predicting individuals who will miss more than 20% of their appointments and triaging interventions.

Hepatitis C Cure Is Associated with Decreased Healthcare Costs in Cirrhotics in Retrospective Veterans Affairs Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 233,898 individuals in the Veterans Affairs healthcare network are hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected, making the Veterans Affairs the single largest provider of HCV care in the USA. Direct-acting antiviral treatment regimens for HCV offer high cure rates. However, these medications pose an enormous financial burden, and whether HCV cure is associated with decreased healthcare costs is poorly defined. AIMS: To measure downstream healthcare costs in a national population of HCV-infected patients up to 9 years post-HCV antiviral treatment, to compare downstream healthcare costs between cured and uncured patients, and to assess impact of cirrhosis status on cost differences. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study (2004-2014) of hepatitis C-infected patients who initiated antiviral treatment within the United States Veterans Affairs healthcare system October 2004-September 2013. We measured inpatient, outpatient, and pharmacy costs after HCV treatment. RESULTS: For the entire cohort, cure was associated with mean cumulative cost savings in post-treatment years three-six, but no cost savings by post-treatment year nine. By post-treatment year nine, cure in cirrhosis patients was associated with a mean cumulative cost savings of $9474 (- 32,666 to 51,614) per patient, while cure in non-cirrhotic patients was associated with a mean cumulative cost excess of $2526 (- 12,211 to 7159) per patient. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with cirrhosis at baseline, cure is associated with absolute cost savings up to 9 years post-treatment compared to those without cure. Among patients without cirrhosis, early post-treatment cost savings are counterbalanced by higher costs in later years.

Characteristics and outcomes of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt recipients in the VA Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement is an effective treatment for complications of portal hypertension. We aimed to describe post-TIPS mortality and its predictors in the modern era of covered stents. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We identified patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS insertion at Veterans Affairs Healthcare facilities nationally from 2004 to 2014 (n=703), most of which (95%) were performed as elective procedures. We followed patients until the date of death, transplantation, or the end of the observation period. RESULTS: TIPS recipients had a mean age of 59.3 years (SD 8) and 97% were men. The mean Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 13 (SD 4.8); 47% had hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, 48% had variceal hemorrhage, and 40% had ascites. During a mean follow-up of 1.72 years (SD 1.9), 57.5% of TIPS recipients died (n=404) and only 5.3% underwent liver transplantation (n=37). The median survival after TIPS was 1.74 years (interquartile range 0.3-4.7). Thirty-day mortality after TIPS was 11.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4-14.2], 1-year mortality was 40.3% (95% CI 36.7-44.2), and 3-year mortality was 61.9% (95% CI 57.9-66.0). Independent predictors of post-TIPS mortality included medical comorbidity burden, low albumin, HCV infection, and high MELD score (or high international normalized ratio and bilirubin when the components of the MELD score were analyzed individually). TIPS revision was performed at least once in 27.3% of TIPS recipients. CONCLUSION: TIPS should not be considered simply as a bridge to transplantation. Burden of extra-hepatic comorbidities, HCV infection, and low serum albumin strongly predict post-TIPS mortality in addition to the MELD score.

Trends in burden of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma by underlying liver disease in US veterans, 2001-2013.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are predicted to increase in the United States but the accuracy of prior forecasts and the contributions from various liver disease etiologies remain unclear. We aimed to determine the burden of cirrhosis and HCC according to underlying cause from 2001 to 2013. METHODS: We developed a national retrospective cohort of Veterans Affairs (VA) patients with the diagnosis of cirrhosis (n = 129,998) or HCC (n = 21,326) from 2001 to 2013. We used laboratory results, International Classification of Diseases, ninth edition (ICD-9) codes, and body mass index to identify underlying etiologies. RESULTS: In 2013, VA provided care to 5,720,614 individuals, of whom 60,553 (1.06%) had cirrhosis and 7,670 (0.13%) had HCC. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) was present in an increasing proportion of cirrhosis and HCC between 2001 and 2013, reaching 48% of cirrhosis cases and deaths and 67% of HCC cases and deaths by 2013. Cirrhosis prevalence nearly doubled from 2001 to 2013 (664 to 1058 per 100,000 enrollees), driven by HCV and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Cirrhosis incidence ranged from 159 to 193 per 100,000 patient-years. Deaths in patients with cirrhosis increased from 83 to 126 per 100,000 patient-years, largely driven by HCV. HCC incidence was 2.5-fold increased from 17 to 45 per 100,000 patient-years. HCC mortality tripled from 13 to 37 per 100,000 patient-years, driven overwhelmingly by HCV, with much smaller contributions from NAFLD and alcoholic liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: Cirrhosis prevalence and mortality and HCC incidence and mortality increased from 2001 to 2013, driven by HCV, with a smaller contribution from NAFLD. If current trends continue, cirrhosis prevalence will peak in 2021. Health care systems will need to accommodate rising numbers of patients with cirrhosis and HCC.

Smoking and physical activity: examining health behaviors and 15-year mortality among individuals with multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine 2 modifiable health behaviors-smoking and physical activity-and their relationship to mortality among individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of Large Health Survey. SETTING: Data were obtained from a linkage of the Veterans Affairs (VA) MS National Data Repository, containing information on service provision to all individuals with MS receiving health services within the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs; the VA 1999 Large Health Survey, containing information on smoking and physical activity; and the VA Vital Status File. All-cause mortality was examined for the 15-year period from 1999 through 2013. PARTICIPANTS: Participants (N=2994) with MS who completed the Large Health Survey containing information on smoking and physical activity. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Survival. RESULTS: There were 1500 deaths (50.1%) during the study period. Cox proportional hazard analyses were conducted to examine the association between smoking and physical activity and 15-year mortality. After adjusting for demographic factors, physical functioning, mental health, and comorbid medical conditions, baseline smoking was associated with greater mortality (hazard ratio [HR]=1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.184-1.60). Higher levels of baseline physical activity were associated with lower mortality (activity 1-2 times/wk: HR=.64; 95% CI, .518-.798; activity ≥3 times/wk: HR=.53; 95% CI, .388-.715). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that modifiable health behaviors represent a promising opportunity for intervention to improve the lives of individuals with MS.